The Oct 19th, 2026 Alberta Referenda

There were 10 referendum questions on the ballot - with the last one widely understood as a referendum on separation from Canada. About 1.5 million people voted and split about 25:75 in favor of Alberta staying in Canada. Stephen Taylor has a detailed list of the questions and the votes here.

On eight of the ten questions Alberta voted against the federal government - and because the one on opting out of federal funding wasn't widely understood that negative result probably doesn't reflect actual public opinion.

A comment by "Chris in North Alberta" at smalldeadanimals.com partially explains the result on the independence issue:

Perhaps fragmenting the separatist campaign into four or five different poorly publicized (among the general population) organizations, each headed by a leader of varying crankiness, was not a winning strategy.

Future NDP Premier Naheed Henshi must be rubbing his hands in glee as mad separators prepare to destroy the United Conservative Party.

The other part of the explanation is that the question was poorly posed and the remainers had all the money, all the media support, professional organization, and a very simple message suggesting no change, requiring no thought, and posing little obvious risk.

There will, as Chris in North Alberta says, be gloating and rejoicing in Ottawa and among Alberta's leftists but they are, pretty much as usual, dead wrong: the results weaken Alberta's position in confederation and the abuser, Ottawa, will now do what abusers always do when they get away with it: double down on the abuse. As a result we can expect Ottawa to hand the separatists all the ammunition they need to win the next round - or the one after that - by a massive majority.

There are now really only two things that will, in the longer term, keep Alberta in Canada:

1. if Quebec leaves the confederation, the balance of power in the rest of Canada will change dramatically - the maritimes will dribble off to form an enclave of their own while Ontario and the west re-align with the United States to become North America's fastest growing and most prosperous area; or,

    

2. everything goes to shit: the democrats win in the U.S.; Europe continues its slide to third world status; and a dozen or so religious or tribal groupings, led by India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and China start a land war none of them can win.