Post UCP Convention Action Options

[A note to American readers: Alberta is Canada's energy province; Danielle Smith is the premier of Alberta and leader of the United Conservative Party [UCP]; Mark Carney is the Trump hating progressive prime minister of Canada; Ottawa is the capital of Canada and the people there act as if they think Alberta is a colony of rich rural yokels to be exploited at will.]

Alberta signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" on energy development and taxation with the federal government just before the United Conservative Party [UCP] 2025 fall convention in Edmonton last weekend. My impressions are that hardly anyone at the convention believed any of the federal government's promises other than those involving tax increases, that probably nine out of every ten delegates favor holding a referendum on Alberta independence, and that about eight out of every ten want the Yes side to win that referendum.

I see two problems with that referendum idea:

1. first, the infrastructure for either independence or any form of union with the United States isn't in place; and,
2. secondly, the people at the convention represent the heart and soul of the party, but not the opinions of most Alberta voters.

   Thus the straight up independence referendum proposed by the Alberta Prosperity Project (one of whose founders delivered a rousing presentation at the convention) would probably pass with more than 80 percent of the vote among party members, but fail by a similar margin among the population at large.

   The key reason for this isn't that Albertans generally see themselves as Canadians living in Alberta - quite the opposite: the 80% No vote on independence wouldn't be the result of widespread pro-Canada sentiment, but would come from a combination of media support for the status quo, TDS, and the reality that people who fear change and want to trust in the assurances and goodwill of people like Mark Carney et al, will both actively search out and produce social and media support for that during the campaign, and then affirm their commitment to the beliefs this induces by voting against independence.

As Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith's job is to hold Carney et to their commitments - something I believe is pretty much impossible because the Carney liberals, even if they actually wanted to honor their commitments, probably don't have the political clout to do so.

As leader of the UCP, however, her main job is to win the next provincial elections while acting on the directions set by the membership.

So what she needs is a way to do both without giving up any of the government's other major initiatives - and, yes, of course, I am about to suggest one. 

The strategy is to load the referendum weapon and aim it at Ottawa instead of Edmonton - because I believe first that Ottawa will honor its obligations to Alberta only if there is absolutely no alternative; and, second, that the (heavily subsidized) national media mention, explain, and pretend to deprecate, the Prosperity Project referendum so often precisely because its inevitable defeat will weaken Alberta, damage the UCP, and help the progressive left.

There are two tactics to the strategy:

1. First, hold a winnable referendum. Specifically, announce an intent to defend the country by reducing liberal exploitation of the producing provinces through a referendum asking for authority to explore an economic union with the United States as a fallback to be voted on if the federal government fails to fully rectify a clearly ennunciated list of western grievances by some fixed date. Basically the campaign says we love Canada but confederation cannot continue unless the west is treated fairly; a Yes vote here is the slap upside the head Ottawa needs before they'll straighten up and fly right.

   That could, I think, get an 80% or better positive vote in both Alberta and Saskatchewan, strengthen existing provincial leadership, and force the federal government to choose between treating the west fairly or breaking up the country.

    

2. Second, forget about a pipeline through B.C. Remember what happened to Kinder-Morgan's three year, 4.5 billion dollar, TMX expansion project? It took nearly 12 years and $33 billion to get mostly done. So, look south, instead.

   When Biden unilaterally cancelled the Keystone II expansion project various players sued for compensation but all were denied largely because the Trudeau government quietly sided with Biden et al. Ask the Trump administration to revive Keystone II through an executive order defining the line as a national security priority while setting permits and processes on the American side to the status quo ante, and agreeing to a fair financial settlement of past claims to be paid out when and if, and only then and if, the project enters service within a short time period such as 18 months.

   Notice that this would include free movement of the people, products, and services needed to build, test, and operate the line - thus strengthening the Trump administration's position just before the new NAFTA replacement negotiations begin, giving Ontario premier Ford and Prime Minister Carney - both of whom recently won elections by running against Trump - the metaphorical finger, and all while further ensuring American energy security, creating nearly 30,000 temporary jobs, (and another 3,000 or so permanent ones) mainly in the western states, raising net receipts from Alberta energy sales while adding a million barrels a day to exports, and probably setting the regulatory and financial framework in place for development of a new Oil Sands plant near Fort McMurray.

Relative to known alternatives both tactics are easy to implement: the referendum puts the onus clearly and simply on Ottawa - the campaign writes itself - while the natural justice arguments on Keystone are real; attracting the right players to make it work is easy; and the wins, on economics, on security, on politics, are obvious, direct, and very real regardless of how Ottawa responds.